UrbanSpectra
Published2026-10-06

48,000 trips a day: UrbanSpectra’s cycling analysis for the City of Sydney

I’m pleased to share the completion of a recent commercial engagement by UrbanSpectra Pty Ltd for the City of Sydney: cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/research-reports/daily-cycling-trips-city-of-sydney[1][2][3]

How many cycling trips are there in the City of Sydney? It’s a simple question without a simple answer: any estimate requires assumptions, approximations and inferences. What counts as a trip? How long is a trip? What about commuter trips into or out of the council area? What about the weather or season?

This work has also been republished at urbanspectra.com/report/2026/07/quantifying-cycling-trips-in-the-city-of-sydney/.

How It Works

The City provided UrbanSpectra with a brief to develop a credible estimate of cycling activity within the LGA. The City wanted a methodology prioritising clarity, transparency and explainability. I responded with a proposal drawing on my literature review, software development experience, and understanding of cycling policy.

I implemented a deterministic activity estimation algorithm – based on prior Transport for London[4] work, and in alignment with Austroads guidance – through iterative development and review with City of Sydney staff. The code draws on multiple sets of count data, collected by humans and automatic counters, to estimate cycling activity across different areas and infrastructure types.[3]: §5.1 

I proactively engaged with organisations including Transport for NSW, Transport for London, and UNSW to seek feedback and procure data. Thank you very much to the staff at these institutions for your time and assistance.

The Finding

The report estimates 48,000 daily cycling trips within the City of Sydney Local Government Area (LGA) on a fair-weather weekday in March 2026. This sits within the range of other indicators, such as TfNSW Household Travel Survey (HTS) estimates, prior machine learning model predictions, and share bike data. The Lord Mayor, Clover Moore, has since cited the figures.[5]

Share bike trips in the City of Sydney have also increased substantially, with a weekday-only average of over 20,000 trips per day from at least March to May 2026. For broader context, NSW Transport Minister John Graham has said “Sydney is increasingly becoming a cycling city”, noting it is the second highest user of Lime bikes in the world, behind London.[6]

Open Data and Reproducibility

Where possible, the report uses clear and accessible language to be readable by anyone. The analysis outputs are reproducible by the public, using the provided open-source (AGPLv3) software code and Creative Commons-licensed input data.[3]: §8.1  Limitations to this methodology are candidly described, and all assumptions are documented. The materials are published by the City[2] (as a PDF) and republished (as HTML) by UrbanSpectra.[3]

This analysis was made possible by the City’s recent investment in a network of high-accuracy automated counters, and long-standing program of twice-yearly manual counts detailing turn movements at hundreds of intersections (since 2010[3]: §4.1.1.2 ). To the individuals who carried out these counts, whether on street corners or through video far from Sydney: thank you for your labour in creating this data.

Evaluation and interpretation of this analysis should appreciate its constraints. While I have made every effort to ensure accurate citations and outputs, this analysis has not been through academic peer review. Please forward any corrections, comments, or further research by email.

What’s Next?

The significant volume of newly-available data will support ongoing analyses, including any future efforts to quantify the economic benefits of cycling infrastructure investment.

It was a pleasure to collaborate iteratively with Sarah Brickhill and Fiona Campbell[7] on this project.

Jake’s passion for walking and cycling was clear throughout the project, and, combined with his excellent technical capabilities, made for an exceptional piece of work. His attention to detail was incredible, and he very much went above and beyond in delivering the work. I am very happy with the quality of the outputs Jake provided and the value for money that they represented. Jake’s working style is also very collaborative and transparent.

— Sarah Brickhill, Manager of Transport Planning, City of Sydney, Reference letter, 24 August 2026[8]

If you have an interesting challenge in the urban analytics, transport planning or active transport space and would like to collaborate – let’s chat: [email protected].

This post has been reviewed with the client before publication.

Links

  1. ↑

    “Daily cycling trips in the City of Sydney local area”. cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au. City of Sydney. 2026-09-28.

  2. ↑ 2.0 2.1 Jake Coppinger (July 2026). Quantifying Cycling Trips in the City of Sydney (PDF). cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au (Report). UrbanSpectra Pty Ltd. Sydney, Australia: City of Sydney.
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Jake Coppinger (July 2026). Quantifying Cycling Trips in the City of Sydney (HTML). urbanspectra.com (Report). UrbanSpectra Pty Ltd. Sydney, Australia: City of Sydney.
  4. ↑ “Cycling use estimates: methodology note” (PDF). Transport for London. 2025-05-17. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2025-07-30.
  5. ↑ Clover Moore [@clovermoore]; (2026-09-05). “What happens after we build a cycleway? Less traffic. More people. Better streets” – via Instagram.
  6. ↑ Aston Brown (2026-03-19). “Sydney’s inner west has the conditions for a cycling boom, but riders say the network falls short”. ABC News. “Sydney is increasingly becoming a cycling city. We’ve got record numbers on new cycleways and we’re now the second highest users of Lime bikes in the world behind London,” Mr Graham said.
  7. ↑ “Singing the praises of an unsung City of Sydney hero”. news.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au. City of Sydney. 2023-08-17.
  8. ↑ Brickhill, Sarah (2026-08-24). “Reference for UrbanSpectra”. Letter to Jake Coppinger. X133485.